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Research

The if-then plan: a small habit with big evidence.

Why picturing success can backfire, and the one-sentence plan that helps people follow through.

“Visualise your success” is some of the most repeated advice in self-help. The research is less flattering than the posters.

Dreaming can drain the drive

Psychologist Gabriele Oettingen has spent decades studying positive thinking about the future. In a 2002 study with Doris Mayer, positive fantasies about a desired future predicted less effort and poorer performance, while positive expectations predicted more (Oettingen & Mayer, 2002). Imagining the finish line can feel so good that it takes the edge off actually running there.

That doesn’t mean optimism is bad. It means a wish needs company.

Add the obstacle, then a plan

Oettingen’s approach, known as WOOP, walks through four steps: the Wish, the best Outcome, the main Obstacle inside you or your situation, and a Plan for that obstacle. Holding the goal and the obstacle side by side is what turns a daydream into commitment.

The plan has a shape: if… then…

Research on implementation intentions, led by Peter Gollwitzer, gives the plan its format: “If situation X happens, then I will do Y.” Instead of “I’ll exercise more”, it’s “If it’s 7am on a weekday, then I’ll put my shoes on before I check my phone.”

It has been tested many times. A 2006 meta-analysis by Gollwitzer and Paschal Sheeran reviewed 94 independent tests and found a medium-to-large effect on reaching goals (d = .65). A 2025 meta-analysis of 642 tests confirmed it holds: effects ranged from d = .27 to .66 across cognitive, affective and behavioural outcomes, and were larger when plans used an if-then format, motivation was high and plans were rehearsed.

Why it works: the decision is made in advance. When the moment arrives, you don’t need to find motivation — you only need to notice the cue.

If the plan fails one day, read a missed day is data, not defeat.

Write yours in two minutes

  1. Wish: one goal, in a sentence.
  2. Outcome: the best result, briefly. Don’t linger here.
  3. Obstacle: the most likely thing to get in your way — be specific and honest.
  4. Plan: “If [that obstacle] happens, then I will [one concrete action].”

Use it inside a full plan: how to plan a personal project.

How MileStone uses this

If-then plans are built into every goal.

When you create a goal, MileStone asks reflection questions in this shape: why it matters, what achieving it would change, what might get in the way, and — the part most apps skip — “When that obstacle shows up, what will you do? (If… then I will…)”. The answers stay with the goal, so the plan is there on the day you need it. The app is at codemilestone.com/app.

Sources

  • Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119.
  • Sheeran, P., Listrom, O., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (2025). The when and how of planning: Meta-analysis of the scope and components of implementation intentions in 642 tests. European Review of Social Psychology, 36(1), 162–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2024.2334563
  • Oettingen, G., & Mayer, D. (2002). The motivating function of thinking about the future: Expectations versus fantasies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(5), 1198–1212. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.5.1198

Sources last checked: 2026-10-10.